The markets are off to a circus of a start today. The SPX is churning through the 1497-1531 range. A large gap up move occurs this morning but the market is falling on its sword after word that Berlusconi may have done far better in the Italy elections than anyone thought. The euro is 1.3245 well off the 1.33 only one-half hour ago. You know the refrain, down euro = down markets, so the SPX is retracing right now at 1518. WTIC oil is dropping back down towards 93. Lower oil means lower markets. The 10-year yield hit 2.00% a short time ago but now back to 1.97%. Keybot flipped back to the long side but do not be surprised for another whipsaw to the short side again. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead and the 8 MA has not yet curled over, so the bulls are feeling comfortable today. The TRIN is 1.16 favoring the sellers and the move lower in the SPX. SPX S/R is 1531, 1528, 1525, 1524, 1521, 1520, 1518, 1516, 1514, 1512.10 (20-day MA), 1511, 1509 and 1505. The HOD is 1525.84 with the 1525 R holding. Copper is flat. Financials are negative. Retail sector is positive with LOW helping. Voaltility is moving up with VIX above 14 but bears cannot be happy until they see VIX 15.60+.
Note Added 2/25/13 at 11:25 AM: The action becomes more odd each day. The euro has now plummeted from 1.33 to 1.32 in one-hour's time on the Italy election news. SPX is 1518. TRIN 1.14 bear-friendly. VIX 14.36 bull-friendly. President Obama is now making a speech pumping up the fear over the sequestration that hits on Friday.
Note Added 2/25/13 at 12:33 PM: The SPX is moving across the 20-day MA at 1511.84. Bears have the upper hand below the 20-day, bulls rule above. The 1509 support held. VIX HOD is 15.36 twenty-four cents shy of the 15.60+ goal for the bears. TRIN 1.62 firmly bearish for today. The 8 MA curls over to the downside on the 30-minute chart. Euro is 1.3279 under 1.33. The 10-year yield collapses to 1.93%; money is running into bonds for safety today, not the 'great migration' out.
Note Added 2/25/13 at 3:00 PM: Wild whipsaw action all day. Keybot is close to flipping short again but needs to see 1502 and lower. The 8 MA just stabbed down through the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart to signal bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. The VIX exploded higher straight up through 15.60 now printing 16.84, heading to 17. The VIX is up 20% today. The euro is 1.3103 and fell under 1.31 a short time ago. Wild move in the 10-year today jumping over 2% today now under 1.9% at 1.89%, printing 1.86% for a low today. A fifteen-basis point range is a big deal. With the Italy turmoil, traders are seeking safety, this is a spectacular move in notes and bonds. The 30-year yield is at 3.09% heading towards 3.00%. Yields moving down is disinflationary and deflationary behavior. The SPX is at the strong S/R at 1505. Crude oil is 93.10 performing a round trip as well today, from 93 to up over 94 and then back down to 93. Keystone is searching through the junk drawer for the dramamine.
Note Added 2/25/13 at 4:36 PM: The smoke and dust is still clearing. What a wild whipsaw day, one for the ages. Keybot flipped back to the short side this afternoon at SPX 1502. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the 30-minute signaling bearishness ahead. Importantly, the critical 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1499.91 failed today. The SPX 50-day MA is 1476.72, only ten points lower, so price may want a touch. The bears are driving the bus and unlike the fake-out move to the downside the other day, where the VIX dropped to signal that the market selling was phoney, today the VIX sky rocketed higher and stayed high as markets fell. Today was another key reversal day as well (today's high moved above the prior days high and the low and close is under the prior days low), the second one in five days, a very bearish indication. As long as the VIX stays above 15.60, now at 18.99, the bears have no worries. The move in the 10-year yield is phenomenal, closing at 1.86%. The financials were weak today causing market weakness. MS was hit hard so it must continue to maintain exposure to Europe.
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